French plane 'missing off Brazil' (AF447)

[flying_kiwi]

According to nu.nl some wreckage parts are found by the crew of a french ship near the coast of Senegal.

This report has already been disproven, but the Brazilian Air Force has announced that last night a R-99 taking part in the search detected debris approximately 650km northeast of Fernando de Noronha, and Hercules aircraft sent to that area after first light sighted metal, an oil slick, lifejackets, and what is believed to be a aircraft seat.
None of the wreckage has been confirmed as belonging to AF447 as yet.

Yorden

[Rockville]

Plane searchers spot ocean debris

Brazilian aircraft searching for an Air France jet which went missing with 228 people aboard in an Atlantic storm have spotted debris on the ocean.
Plane seats and other items were sighted 650km (400 miles) north-east of Brazil's Fernando do Noronha island, the Brazilian air force said.
It could not be immediately confirmed that the debris came from the Airbus.
The jet was heading from Brazil to Paris when it vanished about four hours into its flight, early on Monday.
Air Force spokesman Jorge Amaral said the seats had been spotted by search planes early on Tuesday.
Also spotted were small white pieces of debris, material that may be metallic and signs of oil and kerosene, which is used as jet fuel.
"The search is continuing because it's very little material in relation to the size [of the Airbus A330]," Mr Amaral added.
Officials, he said, needed "a piece that might have a serial number, some sort of identification" to be sure it came from the missing jet.
French Defence Minister Herve Morin has stressed there is still "no evidence whatsoever" as to the cause of the plane's loss
"We cannot, by definition, exclude a terrorist attack, because terrorism is the main threat for all Western democracies," he added.

Turbulence

Plane crews from Brazil, France and other countries had narrowed their search to a zone half-way between Brazil and west Africa, hoping to pick up signals from the Airbus's Argos beacons.
In his last radio message, at about 0200 GMT on Monday, the captain of Flight AF 447 reported entering turbulence, French media say.
Up to a dozen reports of electrical failures were sent automatically from the plane before it vanished over the ocean just after.
Most of the missing people are Brazilian or French but they include a total of 32 nationalities. Five Britons and three Irish citizens are among them.
Crisis centres have been set up at Charles de Gaulle airport in Paris and Rio's Tom Jobim international airport.
One of the Brazilians on board was Pedro Luis de Orleans e Braganca, a direct descendent of the last Brazilian emperior, Dom Pedro II, a spokesman for the family said.

Story from BBC NEWS:
Published: 2009/06/02 13:14:53 GMT

[Arjan]

Well, the 13:00h news report on Dutch Channel 2 reported that the French airforce sent out a Apache helicopter to find the wreckage because this helicopter with its ultrasonic equipment and extended flying could search the ocean for hours!

[SkyPlane]

Blow-up of search area chart here.

[edited by mod]

[Key]

Meanwhile, it has been confirmed that two debris fields, located in the ocean, originate from the lost Airbus.
Thoughts about the cause of the crash concentrate on heavy turbulence, lightning, a major or total electrical failure and/or possibly a rapid decompression caused by a fuselage puncture.

The FAB is reporting about the search quite precisely on their website, they even put up a list of the specific aircraft involved. See Nota 3 and 4 at http://www.fab.mil.br/portal/capa/index.php?mostra=3089" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; .

BTW, nonsense due to mistakes or lack of knowledge still sips into news items:

About three hours into the journey, more than 200 miles off Brazil's coast, the jet transmitted 10 maintenance reports: (...)
About 10 to 15 minutes later, when the Airbus A330 was scheduled to be over the Canary Islands -- where the radio would generally function better, because the plane is over land -- Flight 447 was expected to send a location report (...)

The second line suggests covering some 4000km in 10 to 15 minutes, and radios to function better over land than over water. This looks like one big mix-up of themes like control areas vs. the land where their control stations are, different groups of islands and vast stretches of ocean being outside the VHF/UHF radio horizon of any land-based stations.


Erik

[piet61]

Hello,

When an aircraft is flying across the Atlantic, it have radio contact on the HF mode.
In this case probably Santa Maria on the 8.907mhz.
I suggest that the A330 was using the NAT-D or NAT-E track for crossing.
NAT = North Atlantic Tracking.
Any plane is obliged to give position reports, altitude, speed, windspeed and outside temperature on certain times during the crossing.
When a plane is beginning to cross the North or South Atlantic they have to report to a HF frequenty and the pilots have also to give the Selcal of the airplane.
The Selcal is used to identify the plane and is used by the HF operator to call the plane when necessary.
So, during the fact that this bird was crossing the Atlantic when the incident occurs, the HF operators must have known the latest position.
Normal radar covers about 600 km, while HF contacts covers the complete space above the Atlantic.

Hopefully they can salvage the black boxes, but that will be a hard task, due to the fact that the ocean over there is between 3.000 and 6.000 meters deep !

[Key]

This page http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; gives an in-depth analysis of the weather at the probable time and location of the crash. For those who are not scared of detail.
The page also shows the flight was on airway UN873 at the time.

Erik

[Nozem]

This page http://www.weathergraphics.com/tim/af447/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false; gives an in-depth analysis of the weather at the probable time and location of the crash. For those who are not scared of detail.
The page also shows the flight was on airway UN873 at the time.

Erik

WOW this is detailed
looks like something scary happend

Ton

[flying_kiwi]

I suggest that the A330 was using the NAT-D or NAT-E track for crossing.
NAT = North Atlantic Tracking.

The NAT system is, as you mention, for the North Atlantic.
For the South Atlantic there is to my knowledge, no track system between South America and southern Africa, and for flight to western Africa and Europe there are "normal" airways. The ones used most of the time are UN741, UN866, UN873 (which AF447 was reportedly on), UB623, and UN857.

Any plane is obliged to give position reports, altitude, speed, windspeed and outside temperature on certain times during the crossing.
So, during the fact that this bird was crossing the Atlantic when the incident occurs, the HF operators must have known the latest position.

I assume you mean last position, as the latest position would indicate that they have near continuous contact via HF, which is not the case. Aircraft outside radar coverage usually report only at fixed waypoints, or as requested by ATC.
The last confirmed position report for AF447 was waypoint INTOL, at the boundary between the Recife and Atlantico FIRs. This would also be roughly where the last radar contact was. The aircraft was to report to Atlantico at waypoint TASIL (FIR boundary with Dakar Oceanic), before contacting Dakar. The distance between INTOL and TASIL is approximately 360nm.
Without the ACARS messages sent from the aircraft, there would have been no way of knowing when/where the accident took place between INTOL and TASIL, which would have resulted in a enormous search area.

The theory I have, is that the aircraft suffered an upset due to severe turbulence, ended in an unusual attitude, and with the loss of the ADIRU and standby instruments, the crew had no reference to a horizon, overstressed the aircraft during the recovery, which resulted in its breakup.

It will take some time for the FDR and CVR to be located and recovered (if at all), so the only thing we know with any certainty at this point, is that the investigation will be long and difficult.

Regards,
Yorden

[streep]

This is VERY likely to have happend.

Other reports state all 3 ADIRUs and the ISIS as unservisable, or at least causing serious fault reports.
The ADIRU is the Air Data and Inertial reference Unit.
An intergated Air Data Computer and Navigation Computer.
The Air Data part is calculating Airspeed and altitude by using airpressure measurements.
The Navigation computer, only keeps track of the current location.
The A330 has three indipendent ADIRUs onboard.
The ISIS is the Indipendent Standby Indicator, a tiny instrument, that gives a horizon, Airspeed and Altitude. For emergency use.


At altitudes like FL370, the stall speed and overspeed are very close together. With the crew having no correct altitude AND speed indication, they were are simply lost.
You cant climb, as this will bring you above the stress design of the airframe, for an A330 41000ft (only 4000ft, or 1300 meters higher). You can not descent, as this will increase your indicated airspeed, and the overspeed will overstress your airframe.
All these things are normally protected by the flight computers, but with ADIRU failure you are on your own.
Even if you manage to stay in the safe airspeed zone, above stall speed and below overspeed, with no Flight control computer protection, and no situational awareness, and fighting severe turbulance, it is likely the crew will make inputs to the flightcontrols exceeding the design limits.

When the airframe gets overstressed, it is likely to loose large parts of the airplane.
A wing, the tail section, or it can simply result in the rupture of the fuselage.
The airplane will then disintegrate at high altitude, explaining the 60km distance between the pieces found.

My two pesos, so far.


Streep

[Hurricane]

According the reports, so far, all debis found so far hasn't been matched to the AF flight (most was wood fallen from a cargoship) and the oiltrack is the only sign so far noted.

For now the cause is searched between an explosion in mid air and a possible stall...

Adios,

Hurricane

[Antilliaan]

Even the oil appears not to be from the aircraft, according to the Brazilian air force; the amount found is way more than the aircraft could have carried; which probably means the search has to start all over again.

[Rockville]

According to French media, France will dispatch a nuclear submarine to the search area.

[Key]

According CNN, FAB is explaining to relatives of missing people what the difficulties in the search are (while it continues).
Additionally, it is said certainly not all of the debris located so far has been tied to a source. What has been, however, did not come from the Airbus.

Erik

[Hurricane]

Spanish newspaper EL MUNDO reported that a crew flying just behind the AF-flight saw a bright white light falling down the sky for 6 secondes around the time of the disappearing, believed to be the AF plane

(for me this indicates that it is very likely that the plane cought fire and went burning from cruise alt. into the ocean, after the fire and the impact on the water i'm not supriced that noting is found so far, every part of the a/c shatters to dust, as sad IMHO)

Adios,

Hurricane